The benchmark for world meals commodity costs was broadly secure in October, with rising cereal costs greater than offset by declines in quotations for different staples, the Meals and Agriculture Group of the United Nations (FAO) has reported immediately (Friday, November 4).
The FAO Meals Worth Index, which tracks month-to-month modifications within the worldwide costs of a basket of generally traded meals commodities, averaged 135.9 factors in the course of the month of October, negligibly under its degree in September.
With the most recent replace, the index stood 14.9% down from its all-time excessive recorded in March 2022, whereas it remained 2% above its degree in October 2021.
Cereal costs and different commodities
The FAO Cereal Worth Index elevated 3% in the course of the month. World wheat costs rose by 3.2%, largely reflecting uncertainties associated to the Black Sea Grain Initiative and likewise a downward revision for provides within the U.S.
Worldwide costs of coarse grains elevated by 3.5% from September, with maize costs rising much more attributable to decrease manufacturing prospects in the united statesand European Union (EU), together with dry planting situations in Argentina and uncertainty about exports from Ukraine.
Worldwide rice costs elevated by 1% p.c.
The FAO Vegetable Oil Worth Index declined by 1.6% in October and stood almost 20% under its year-earlier degree. Rising worldwide quotations for sunflower seed oil had been greater than offset by decrease world costs of palm, soy and rapeseed oils, based on the FAO.
The FAO Dairy Worth Index dropped by 1.7%, with the costs of all dairy merchandise lined down since September. Decrease than anticipated purchases by China, lacklustre import demand and the weakening of the euro in opposition to the united statesdollar underpinned the drop in October.
The FAO Meat Worth Index was down 1.4% in October in comparison with September, with worldwide ovine, pig, bovine and poultry meat costs all declining on broadly subdued world import demand and rising exportable provides.
The FAO Sugar Worth Index declined 0.6%, bolstered by improved manufacturing prospects in India.
Components similar to rains hampering harvest progress in Brazil, sturdy import demand from Indonesia and China, and better ethanol worth quotations in Brazil, restricted the month-on-month worth decline for sugar.
Lowered forecasts for cereals
In an up to date ‘Cereal Provide and Demand Temporary’ additionally launched immediately, the FAO lowered its forecast for world cereal manufacturing in 2022 to 2,764 million tonnes, a 1.8% decline from 2021.
Whereas world wheat manufacturing is now forecast at 783.8 million tonnes in 2022, an all-time excessive, worldwide coarse grains output is predicted to drop 2.8% to 1,467 million tonnes.
World rice manufacturing is forecast at 512.6 million tonnes, down 2.4% from the 2021 all-time excessive, however nonetheless an general common crop.
World cereal utilisation in 2022/2023 is now forecast to say no to 2,778 million tonnes, 0.7% under the 2021/2022 degree. Likewise, world cereal shares on the finish of seasons in 2023 are forecast to contract by 2% from their opening ranges, all the way down to 841 million tonnes.
Primarily based on these forecasts, the world cereal stocks-to-use ratio is foreseen to say no to 29.4% in 2022/2023 from 30.9% within the earlier yr.
World commerce in cereals in 2022/2023 is predicted to register a 2.2% contraction to 469 million tonnes.