Scottish sheep farms will probably be worst hit by the UK’s post-Brexit free commerce agreements (FTAs), new analysis has proven.

The Scottish authorities has assessed the impression on Scottish agriculture of FTAs between the UK and Australia, New Zealand, Canada and the Gulf Cooperation Council.

Outcomes confirmed that whereas the projected long-term impression of FTAs on Scottish output in comparatively small typically, sheepmeat is an exception.

Scottish sheepmeat output with the FTAs is projected to fall by 10.5-11% underneath the 2 eventualities the federal government used for its evaluation.

In accordance with the report, the FTAs with Australia and New Zealand are the principle drivers of declines in Scottish sheepmeat output.

Beef and wheat are additionally projected to fall (each by round 3% to six% relying on the situation), though the report added {that a} commerce cope with Canada is prone to generate export alternatives for Scotch beef.

Liquid milk output is forecast to develop nevertheless, by 3-9% in worth phrases, indicating that the FTA will convey important alternatives for dairy merchandise.

Projected long-term output of chosen Scottish agri-food sectors by situation (£m)

The report additionally confirmed that the FTAs will result’s “important” farm enterprise earnings declines, and value declines are the principle drivers for this, with Brexit solely taking part in a minor function. The impression of FTAs on wages is anticipated to be minimal.

Scottish Rural Affairs Secretary Mairi Gougeon stated the report reveals that the present UK authorities commerce strategy is “not working within the curiosity of Scottish agriculture”.

“The report additionally reaffirms that such FTAs will set essential precedents to different potential commerce companions about the place the UK is prepared to cede in negotiations,” she stated.

“These might weaken its bargaining place in future offers and result in worse outcomes for these sectors already negatively affected – particularly when it comes to famend manufacturers like Scotch beef and lamb.

“We’ll use these findings to assist determine future coverage choices to mitigate or tackle the differential impacts of commerce, as a part of delivering Scotland’s Imaginative and prescient for Commerce.”